From television stories to personal experiences, we live in a world where honesty seems to be an increasingly rare commodity and suspicion and scepticism become protective shields.

The iconic character Dr House from the TV series of the same name lived by the principle that “everyone lies”. This cynicism was a reflection of his interactions with his patients and various people in his life. In a very different context, my wife’s grandfather, a former storekeeper and manager, developed a deep suspicion of people based on his professional experience, in which he learned to watch carefully for any sign of deception. He was convinced that everyone had a hidden motive behind their actions. Two different perspectives, but both underpinned by a distrust of the people with whom they interacted.

It’s very hard to trust someone when your life experience or professional training has taught you to view the world through the lens of suspicion and distrust. It is equally hard to trust if you have been exposed to one or more conspiracy theories, because, as we shall see, the negative consequences of believing in such theories have in common a lack of trust.

Nothing new under the sun

One might think of conspiracy theories as a phenomenon specific to the modern age, something we must learn to manage so as not to disrupt the normal functioning of society as a whole. But in fact they are as old as humanity.[1] Only the recent and extensive research in the field is new.[2] Whether we are talking about history, politics, medicine, science, economics, industry or celebrity, such theories have always existed, offering explanations and logic where people have not found them.

Given the relative newness of the field, it is understandable that some early research was optimistic[3], seeing conspiracy theories as innocent entertainment, fantastic and illogical theories held by a small number of people. They were therefore not seen as a cause of concern for society. However, the advent of social media has changed the scenario, allowing these theories to spread faster and more widely, leading to the perception that the number of people who believe in conspiracy theories has recently increased.[4] As such, these theories can now be more easily used by malicious individuals to manipulate the masses in the desired direction.

How do conspiracy theories affect us?

Although researchers acknowledge some (very few) positive consequences of believing in conspiracy theories, these are more theoretical.

Empirical evidence shows that such theories generally have a negative impact on interpersonal relationships and the functioning of society.[5] For this reason, positive consequences are formulated with caution. Conspiracy theories may promote a sense of community among those who believe in the same theories; they could challenge the credibility of governments, thereby facilitating political debate; they might inspire collective action and attempts to bring about social change; they can highlight anomalies in official explanations; and they could allow people to question social hierarchies, thereby encouraging governments to be more transparent.[6] Despite all this, experimental research has revealed many serious consequences associated with conspiracy theories.[7]

First of all, there are negative effects on the psychological needs that adherence to a conspiracy theory is supposed to satisfy. While people may choose to believe in a conspiracy theory in order to satisfy their epistemic (the need to have an accurate and consistent understanding of the world), existential (the need to feel secure and in control), and social (the need to have a positive image of themselves and the social group to which they belong) needs, the result of adopting these beliefs is often the opposite. Instead of gaining an accurate understanding of reality, feeling safe and in control, and feeling valued, those who subscribe to these theories may experience a distorted view of reality, feelings of powerlessness and mistrust, and social stigma.

Second, conspiracy theories can lead to polarisation and changes in attitudes towards certain events. Empirical studies have shown that the information we are exposed to shapes our beliefs and attitudes, sometimes without us being aware of the change.[8] Exposure to conspiracy theories can therefore lead us to adopt such explanations, a tendency that is reinforced by the bubble effect or echo chambers that social media and online forums have. The echo chamber is the space, often virtual, where people who share the same beliefs gather and where different or opposing views are excluded.[9] In such a space, the people who frequent it tend to become polarised or radicalised—the initial attitude becomes even more extreme.

Third, conspiracy theories have socio-political consequences. In political terms, the effects are paradoxical. On the one hand, belief in conspiracy theories can lead to demoralisation and discouragement, causing adherents to withdraw from political activities, such as voting, because they see it as a pointless exercise since they cannot influence the plans of those who are supposedly conspiring against them. On the other hand, the belief in the existence of conspiracies can lead to active participation, such as the organisation of protests or the occupation of public spaces (buildings, squares, etc.).

Unfortunately, the suspicion generated by the belief in conspiracies can extend to various political institutions or social groups that have nothing to do with the original conspiracy theory, based on the idea that “they are all the same”. For example, in a sample study in Malaysia, those who believed in Jewish-orchestrated conspiracies also showed racist attitudes towards ethnic Chinese.[10] This phenomenon was also observed among British subjects, where conspiracy theories emphasised prejudice not only against Jews, but also against other groups such as Americans, Asians, and Arabs[11].

Another serious socio-political effect of conspiracy theories is that they can incite violence against fellow human beings. For example, after the Las Vegas shooting on 1 October 2017,[12] survivors were attacked online and accused of being paid actors by lobbyists who want to implement strict gun control laws in the United States. This was repeated in 2018, with other survivors of a shooting being accused of being paid actors by George Soros.

Fourth, conspiracy theories can lead to the refutation of science. Whether it is opposition to vaccines or contraceptive methods, or more recently opposition to wearing masks or to COVID vaccination, or even denial of proven historical facts and explanations, all are based on conspiracy theories. What is worse, these denialist attitudes affect not only the individual but also society, influencing or even undermining the effectiveness of public health interventions. For example, in 1999, the South African government refused to accept donations of antiretroviral drugs for the treatment of AIDS after former South African President Thabo Mbeki, under pressure to purchase zidovudine to prevent mother-to-child transmission, claimed that the drug was toxic and dangerous and even denied that HIV causes AIDS. As a result, all antiretroviral drugs were deemed suspect, and the government restricted the use of other HIV drugs. It is estimated that more than 330,000 South Africans have died as a result of these decisions based on conspiracy theories.[13]

Finally, the negative effects of conspiracy theories are also felt in everyday life. Studies show that believing in conspiracy theories about the management of their company can make employees want to quit their jobs.[14] People who believe in conspiracy theories are also more likely to commit minor offences, such as running a red light[15], because they feel that if others are involved in conspiracies, then perhaps they too have the right to break the law. Furthermore, interpersonal relationships can also be negatively affected by conspiracy theories, as there is a distancing between those who believe in a particular theory and those who do not, whether due to disagreement, social stigma, or the non-normative behaviour of those in the former group[16].

The common ingredient—erosion of trust

Most, if not all, of these consequences have in common the erosion of trust between people: trust between individuals and democratic institutions, trust between individuals and public or scientific authorities, trust between individuals and other participants in the social contract that underpins the rule of law—in essence, the bond of trust between “us” (those who share my beliefs) and “the others” disappears.

Debunking conspiracy theories can be a difficult task. Karen Robertson, from Mississippi, believed in numerous conspiracy theories, including one about vaccines and another suggesting that birth certificates were the equivalent of deeds of ownership of individuals sold by the government to foreign investors, in her case China. She realised she had to give up these ideas when she felt she was on the same intellectual level as someone who used drugs. It took almost a month of online research on how to combat conspiracy theories before she concluded that they were all just nonsense. But it was worth the effort: “When I challenged my beliefs,” she confessed, “it changed my world and it made my life better”.

The picture that research paints of belief in conspiracy theories is mostly one of negative effects on the individual and society as a whole. The sense of security, of control, of power over one’s life that we seek in conspiracy theories will become more and more elusive if we follow this path. We may even end up not trusting even the One who can give us the very feeling we crave, for lack of trust will eventually contaminate all areas of our lives.

Cristinel Sava summarises the consequences of conspiracy theories for those who believe them. He notes that their common denominator is a lack of trust that can affect the most intimate aspects of life.

Footnotes
[1]“For example, the death of the Roman emperor Nero was shrouded in conspiracy theories. Some claimed that he had faked his own suicide and hidden in the East, from where he would return to reclaim the throne and take revenge, while others acknowledged his death but advanced the idea that he would resurrect and ascend the throne again—what is known as the legend of Nero Redivivus (Brian K. Blount, Revelation: A Commentary, Westminster Knox, Louisville, 2009, p. 248). Even in the time of St Augustine, more than 300 years after Nero’s death, some still believed that he was alive and in hiding, waiting for the time to come when he would reveal himself (Augustine, De civitate Dei XX.19.3). Another conspiracy theory, this time initiated by the religious elites of the time, attempted to explain the resurrection of Jesus Christ: His disciples stole His body from the tomb to spread the lie that He had risen (Matthew 28:11-15). Like any conspiracy theory, this one too resonated with its target audience and was still prevalent when Matthew wrote his Gospel.”
[2]“Psychological research on the subject is said to be about 15-20 years old (Kai Sassenberg, Paul Bertin et al, ‘Engaging with Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Consequences,’ in Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, vol. 105, March 2023, article no. 104425; Daniel Jolley, Matthew D. Marques, and Darel Cookson, ‘Shining a Spotlight on the Dangerous Consequences of Conspiracy Theories,’ in Current Opinion in Psychology, vol. 47, October 2022, article no. 101363).”
[3]“Jack Z. Bratich, Conspiracy Panics: Political Rationality and Popular Culture, State University of New York Press, New York, 2008; Steve Clarke, ‘Conspiracy Theories and Conspiracy Theorizing’, in Philosophy of the Social Sciences, vol. 32, no. 2, 2002, pp. 131-150; Timothy Melley, ‘Agency Panic and the Culture of Conspiracy’, in Peter Knight (ed.), Conspiracy Nation: the Politics of Paranoia in Postwar America, New York University Press, New York, 2002, pp. 57-81; Willman, S., ‘Spinning Paranoia: The Ideologies of Conspiracy and Contingency in Postmodern Culture’, in Knight, op. cit. pp. 21-39.”
[4]“A study published in 2022 concluded that there is more evidence that people’s willingness to believe various conspiracy theories has decreased over time than the other way around (Joseph Uscinski, Adam Enders et al, ‘Have Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories Increased Over Time?’, in PLOS One, vol. 17, no. 7, 2022, art. no. e0270429). However, the situation is complex in that conspiracy beliefs about specific events tend to increase over time. For example, in 1992 only 10% of Americans believed the official version that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone when he assassinated President John F. Kennedy, whereas in 1966, three years after the event, the proportion was higher at 36% (Ted Goertzel, ‘Belief in Conspiracy Theories’, in Political Psychology, vol. 15, no. 4, December 1994, pp. 731).”
[5]“Daniel Jolley, Silvia Mari and Karen M. Douglas, ‘Consequences of Conspiracy Theories’, in Michael Butter and Peter Knight (eds.), Routledge Handbook of Conspiracy Theories, Routledge, London/New York, 2020, p. 232.”
[6]“Loc. cit.”
[7]“For a synthesis of previous research on the negative consequences of conspiracy theories, which we summarise below, see Jolley, Mari and Douglas, op cit, pp. 233-239.”
[8]“For example, in one such study, participants who had read conspiracy theories about the death of Princess Diana were more likely to believe such explanations, even though they did not perceive that their beliefs had changed (Karen M. Douglas and Robbie M. Sutton, ‘The Hidden Impact of Conspiracy Theories: Perceived and Actual Influence of Theories Surrounding the Death of Princess Diana,’ in The Journal of Social Psychology, vol. 148, no. 2, 2008, pp. 210-222).”
[9]“Ozana Mazilu, ‘Ce este o “cameră de ecou” și cum afli dacă ești în ea pe internet’ (What is an ‘echo chamber’ and how to find out if you’re in one on the internet), in Playtech (online), 1 July 2002, available at https://playtech.ro/2022/ce-este-o-camera-de-ecou-si-cum-afli-daca-te-afli-in-ea-pe-internet.”
[10]“Viren Swami, ‘Social Psychological Origins of Conspiracy Theories: The Case of the Jewish Conspiracy Theory in Malaysia’, in Frontiers in Psychology, Vol. 3, 2012, p. 280.”
[11]“Jolley, Mari and Douglas, op. cit., p. 235.”
[12]“Stephen Paddock, a 64-year-old accountant and high-stakes gambler, opened fire on attendees at a country music festival in Las Vegas, killing 59 people and injuring 489 others.”
[13]“Pride Chigwedere, George R. Seage III et al, ‘Estimating the Lost Benefits of Antiretroviral Drug Use in South Africa,’ in JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, vol. 49, no. 4, 2008, pp. 410-415.”
[14]“Karen M. Douglas and Ana C. Leite, ‘Suspicion in the Workplace: Organisational conspiracy theories and work-related outcomes’, in British Journal of Psychology, vol. 108, no. 3, 2017, pp. 486-506.”
[15]“Daniel Jolley, Rose Meleady, and Karen M. Douglas, ‘Exposure to Intergroup Conspiracy Theories Promotes Prejudice Which Spreads Across Groups,’ in British Journal of Psychology, vol. 111, no. 1, February 2020, pp. 17-35.”
[16]“Daniel Toribio-Flórez, Ricky Green et al. ‘Does Belief in Conspiracy Theories Affect Interpersonal Relationships?’ in The Spanish Journal of Psychology, vol. 26, no. e9, 2023, pp. 1-8.”

“For example, the death of the Roman emperor Nero was shrouded in conspiracy theories. Some claimed that he had faked his own suicide and hidden in the East, from where he would return to reclaim the throne and take revenge, while others acknowledged his death but advanced the idea that he would resurrect and ascend the throne again—what is known as the legend of Nero Redivivus (Brian K. Blount, Revelation: A Commentary, Westminster Knox, Louisville, 2009, p. 248). Even in the time of St Augustine, more than 300 years after Nero’s death, some still believed that he was alive and in hiding, waiting for the time to come when he would reveal himself (Augustine, De civitate Dei XX.19.3). Another conspiracy theory, this time initiated by the religious elites of the time, attempted to explain the resurrection of Jesus Christ: His disciples stole His body from the tomb to spread the lie that He had risen (Matthew 28:11-15). Like any conspiracy theory, this one too resonated with its target audience and was still prevalent when Matthew wrote his Gospel.”
“Psychological research on the subject is said to be about 15-20 years old (Kai Sassenberg, Paul Bertin et al, ‘Engaging with Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Consequences,’ in Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, vol. 105, March 2023, article no. 104425; Daniel Jolley, Matthew D. Marques, and Darel Cookson, ‘Shining a Spotlight on the Dangerous Consequences of Conspiracy Theories,’ in Current Opinion in Psychology, vol. 47, October 2022, article no. 101363).”
“Jack Z. Bratich, Conspiracy Panics: Political Rationality and Popular Culture, State University of New York Press, New York, 2008; Steve Clarke, ‘Conspiracy Theories and Conspiracy Theorizing’, in Philosophy of the Social Sciences, vol. 32, no. 2, 2002, pp. 131-150; Timothy Melley, ‘Agency Panic and the Culture of Conspiracy’, in Peter Knight (ed.), Conspiracy Nation: the Politics of Paranoia in Postwar America, New York University Press, New York, 2002, pp. 57-81; Willman, S., ‘Spinning Paranoia: The Ideologies of Conspiracy and Contingency in Postmodern Culture’, in Knight, op. cit. pp. 21-39.”
“A study published in 2022 concluded that there is more evidence that people’s willingness to believe various conspiracy theories has decreased over time than the other way around (Joseph Uscinski, Adam Enders et al, ‘Have Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories Increased Over Time?’, in PLOS One, vol. 17, no. 7, 2022, art. no. e0270429). However, the situation is complex in that conspiracy beliefs about specific events tend to increase over time. For example, in 1992 only 10% of Americans believed the official version that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone when he assassinated President John F. Kennedy, whereas in 1966, three years after the event, the proportion was higher at 36% (Ted Goertzel, ‘Belief in Conspiracy Theories’, in Political Psychology, vol. 15, no. 4, December 1994, pp. 731).”
“Daniel Jolley, Silvia Mari and Karen M. Douglas, ‘Consequences of Conspiracy Theories’, in Michael Butter and Peter Knight (eds.), Routledge Handbook of Conspiracy Theories, Routledge, London/New York, 2020, p. 232.”
“Loc. cit.”
“For a synthesis of previous research on the negative consequences of conspiracy theories, which we summarise below, see Jolley, Mari and Douglas, op cit, pp. 233-239.”
“For example, in one such study, participants who had read conspiracy theories about the death of Princess Diana were more likely to believe such explanations, even though they did not perceive that their beliefs had changed (Karen M. Douglas and Robbie M. Sutton, ‘The Hidden Impact of Conspiracy Theories: Perceived and Actual Influence of Theories Surrounding the Death of Princess Diana,’ in The Journal of Social Psychology, vol. 148, no. 2, 2008, pp. 210-222).”
“Ozana Mazilu, ‘Ce este o “cameră de ecou” și cum afli dacă ești în ea pe internet’ (What is an ‘echo chamber’ and how to find out if you’re in one on the internet), in Playtech (online), 1 July 2002, available at https://playtech.ro/2022/ce-este-o-camera-de-ecou-si-cum-afli-daca-te-afli-in-ea-pe-internet.”
“Viren Swami, ‘Social Psychological Origins of Conspiracy Theories: The Case of the Jewish Conspiracy Theory in Malaysia’, in Frontiers in Psychology, Vol. 3, 2012, p. 280.”
“Jolley, Mari and Douglas, op. cit., p. 235.”
“Stephen Paddock, a 64-year-old accountant and high-stakes gambler, opened fire on attendees at a country music festival in Las Vegas, killing 59 people and injuring 489 others.”
“Pride Chigwedere, George R. Seage III et al, ‘Estimating the Lost Benefits of Antiretroviral Drug Use in South Africa,’ in JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, vol. 49, no. 4, 2008, pp. 410-415.”
“Karen M. Douglas and Ana C. Leite, ‘Suspicion in the Workplace: Organisational conspiracy theories and work-related outcomes’, in British Journal of Psychology, vol. 108, no. 3, 2017, pp. 486-506.”
“Daniel Jolley, Rose Meleady, and Karen M. Douglas, ‘Exposure to Intergroup Conspiracy Theories Promotes Prejudice Which Spreads Across Groups,’ in British Journal of Psychology, vol. 111, no. 1, February 2020, pp. 17-35.”
“Daniel Toribio-Flórez, Ricky Green et al. ‘Does Belief in Conspiracy Theories Affect Interpersonal Relationships?’ in The Spanish Journal of Psychology, vol. 26, no. e9, 2023, pp. 1-8.”
Shaun Menary

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